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Title
Associate Professor
Education
Ph.D. Physics – University of California Berkeley 1967
Previous Experience
Professional Interests
Since 1983, I began applying physics modelling techniques to describe the
spread and consequences of the human immunodeficiency viral (HIV) infection,
the etiological cause of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), and
other sexually transmitted diseases.
My techniques in describing the incidence of AIDS in HIV infected areas led
to my receiving a grant from the AIDS Administration of the Maryland
Department of Health and Mental Hygiene to model the epidemic in the state of
Maryland. This project was successfully completed in August, 1990, and my
Maryland AIDS incidence projections were used to construct the AIDS budget
requests subsequently submitted to the Maryland Legislature.
I have recently perfected a method which enables the growth in the size of
the HIV infected population within a country to be calculated independent of
any dynamical model i.e. independent of any assumptions concerning how the
infection was spread, and independent of the form of the mathematical
function used to parametize the HIV infection curve. These results will
enable the current total number of HIV infected Americans to be accurately
calculated from available public health data.
In a recent paper I actually derived the HIV incubation distribution curve
leading to AIDS from the hematic T-Helper cell density distribution for the
seronegative population using an AIDS model that agrees with experiment. The
future values of the HIV incubation period curve can now be calculated for
the first time, and it is projected that 90% of infecteds will develop AIDS
within 18 years after infection.
My current theory of how HIV causes AIDS has led me into the field of
modeling the human immune system. I strongly believe that advances in
understanding the dynamics of the immune system will lead to the ability to
control all infectious diseases, not just the HIV infection.
Selected Publications
Accurately Simulating the Growth in the Size of the HIV Infected Population in Any AIDS Epidemic Country: Computing the USA Infection Curve, I. Kramer 1994. Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 19:2, 91
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